Russia-Africa Summit: The New Scramble for Africa?

There is a fear among many commentators that Russia’s latest attempts to expand its sphere of influence will spark a post-colonial ‘Scramble for Africa’ between Russia and China.  Both countries crave the elixir of ‘soft power’, the ability to influence one’s policy through co-optive, rather than coercive means.  Next week, at the Olympic Park in Sochi, the multibillion-dollar development that played host to the Winter Olympics in 2014, will see President Vladimir Putin welcome leaders from around 40 African countries to discuss, amongst other things, future trade and investment.  Putin will co-chair the event alongside President Sisi of Egypt, the head of the Africa Union.

Russia has not, until now, had much of a foothold on the continent since the end of the Cold War.  At least not overtly.  The private security firm, Wagner Group, has long been involved in operations in Africa, from Madagascar to Libya, and almost anywhere in between.  The group is a convenient modus operandi for the Kremlin, who deny any connection.  Wagner has long been accused of profiting from the illegal export of diamonds, murdering journalists, and frequent human rights abuses.  It has been a useful a vehicle along the road of Russian influence.  

Yet Russia is now looking to involve itself in seemingly more legitimate enterprises.  The summit next week signals this new beginning.  Officials have been looking to coax many of Africa’s ‘strong men’, and Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, has said that leaders from over 40 nations will be in attendance.  It is thought that, in total, over 10,000 people will be involved.

Currently, Russia’s main influence involves the sale of weapons, but it is thought it has its eyes on mining, nuclear power, and oil and gas, hoping to build on deals already struck.  These include an arms-for-platinum deal in Zimbabwe worth around $3 billion, as well as mining projects in Guinea, Angola and Botswana.  These are in addition to nuclear agreements with Zambia and Rwanda.  In total, Russian trade with the continent has seen an increase of over 30 per cent in the last 2 years, worth around $20.4 billion as of last year.  However, this sum is dwarfed by the $170 billion worth of trade China conducts.

It is thought that the summit next week will be used to persuade leaders to depart from their Chinese partners, cautioning against their ‘debt-trap diplomacy’, and thus echoing Western sentiments.  Beijing is currently Africa’s largest creditor, thought to offer tactical loans in exchange for control over state-owned assets.  The latest example of this can be seen in Zambia, where it is thought that the government is looking to sell off the part-state-owned mining company KCM to a Chinese buyer.

Whatever agreements are reached in Sochi next week, they will certainly affect the balance of this zero-sum game.  Many Africans will likely welcome the cold embrace of Russian influence given the hostility felt towards the Chinese.  The eyes of both East and West will be on the Black Sea.  As Alex Vines from the London-based think tank Chatham House has noted, “[t]his is reminiscent of the Cold War”.