IMF Africa Growth Forecast Downgraded

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised down its growth projections for sub-Saharan Africa in 2019.

Following a weak first quarter the latest figures project a growth rate of 3.4 per cent, down from the 3.5 per cent previously forecast in April. The downgrade follows an earlier more substantial drop announced in April, when projections were revised down from 3.8 per cent in October 2018 to 3.5 per cent for the region.

One of the most significant downgrades comes to South Africa’s growth forecast, with the IMF now projecting growth of 0.7 per cent, just half of what it estimated in January 2019. 

“In sub-Saharan Africa, growth is expected at 3.4 percent in 2019 and 3.6 percent in 2020, 0.1 percentage point lower for both years than in the April World Economic Outlook (WEO), as strong growth in many non-resource-intensive countries partially offsets the lackluster performance of the region’s largest economies. Higher, albeit volatile, oil prices have supported the outlook for Angola, Nigeria, and other oil-exporting countries in the region. But growth in South Africa is expected at a more subdued pace in 2019 than projected in the April WEO following a very weak first quarter, reflecting a larger-than-anticipated impact of strike activity and energy supply issues in mining and weak agricultural production,” the IMF stated in its update.

Meanwhile, global growth is projected to stand at 3.2 per cent, rising to 3.5 per cent in 2020.

Commenting on the figures the IMF stated that global growth remains subdued and there is an urgent need to reduce trade and technology tensions.